Enhancing supply chain resilience through supervised machine learning: supplier performance analysis and risk profiling for a multi-class classification problem

Kang, Parminder Singh; Bhawna, Bhawna

Enhancing supply chain resilience through supervised machine learning: supplier performance analysis and risk profiling for a multi-class classification problem

Author

Kang, Parminder Singh

Bhawna, Bhawna

Date

2025

Keywords

supplier performance, supervised machine learning, supplier selection, supply chain resilience

Abstract (summary)

Purpose This paper explores the application of supervised machine learning (ML) classification models to address supplier performance analysis and risk profiling as a multi-class classification problem. The research highlights that current applications of machine learning in supplier selection primarily focus on binary classification problems, underscoring a significant gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach This research paper opts for a structured approach to solve supplier selection and risk profiling using supervised machine learning multi-class classification models and prediction probabilities. The study involved a synthetic data set of 1,600 historical data points, creating a supplier selection framework that simulates current supply chain (SC) performance. The “Supplier Analysis and Selection ML Module” guided supplier selection recommendations based on ML analysis. Real-world variability is introduced through random seeds, impacting actual delivery dates, quantity delivered and quality performance. Supervised ML models, with hyperparameter tuning, enable multi-class classification of suppliers, considering past delivery performance and risk calculations. Findings The study demonstrates the effectiveness of the supervised ML-based approach in ensuring consistent supplier selection across multi-class classification problems. Beyond evaluating past delivery performance, it introduces a new dimension by predicting and assessing supplier risks through ML-generated prediction probabilities. This can enhance overall SC visibility and help organizations optimize strategies associated with risk mitigation, inventory management and customer service. Research limitations/implications The findings highlight the adaptability of ML-based methodologies in dynamic SC environments, providing a proactive means to identify and manage risks. These insights are vital for organizations aiming to bolster SC resilience, particularly amid uncertainties. Practical implications The practical implications of this study are significant for both commercial and humanitarian supply chain management (SCM). For commercial applications, the ML-based methodology allows businesses to make more informed supplier selection decisions, reducing risks and improving operational efficiency. In disaster and humanitarian SC contexts, the use of ML can improve preparedness and resource allocation, ensuring that critical supplies reach affected areas promptly. Social implications The study’s implications extend to disaster and humanitarian SCM, where timely and efficient delivery is critical for saving lives and alleviating suffering. ML tools can improve preparedness, resource allocation and coordination in these contexts, enhancing the resilience and responsiveness of humanitarian supply chains. Originality/value Unlike conventional methods focused on quality, cost and delivery performance aspects, the current study introduces supervised ML to identify and assess supplier risks through prediction probabilities for multi-class classification problems (delivery performance as late, on-time and ahead), offering a refined understanding of supplier selection in dynamic SC environments.

Publication Information

Kang, P. S., & Bhawna, B. (2025). Enhancing supply chain resilience through supervised machine learning: supplier performance analysis and risk profiling for a multi-class classification problem. Business Process Management Journal. https://doi.org/10.1108/BPMJ-03-2024-0174